Reading the 2021 CRE Tea Leaves to Predict 2022 Securitization Volume
Experts dig into 2021 CRE loan securitization data to analyze market evolution and examine what may happen in 2022.
How Will Higher Rates Affect Upcoming CMBS Maturities and COVID Impacted Loans?
In this article, Moody’s Analytics analysts review how higher interest rates have increased the 2nd quarter CMBS new issuance minimum debt yield to 7.12%. In contrast, 29% of ~$77.8 billion of COVID-19 affected loans have a debt yield less than 6%. This piece focuses the analysis on CMBS loans that mature before year end and creates an estimate that $7.7 billion in CMBS loans may fail to mature. If these loans are extended, the existing coupon is significantly lower than the ~6% market coupon required on a new loan, so the related CMBS bond extensions will decrease investors’ returns.
Loans Reaching Maturity without Paying Off: More Trouble Ahead?
In this article, Moody’s Analytics CMBS and CRE analysts examine an increase in 2012 vintage conduit loans that have passed their maturity dates without paying off. They also provide an update on loans near maturity based on July remittance data, highlighting the refinancing challenges that the market continues to face due to recent interest rate increases.